frozen snapshot — 2026-09-18 · see today →
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Friedrich Merz

What's on Friedrich Merz's mind?

read fresh this morning at 6
31%23%16%12%18%
the two regional elections 31% the US friendship, ‘probably over’ 23% · newhalf of Germany expecting his exit 16% · newthe revolt in his own party 12% · neweverything else 18%
#1
Sunday is a referendum on Merz, whether he likes it or not

Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania vote Sunday; the FT, Politico and Bloomberg all frame it as a fight for his political survival.

Germany’s Merz girds for a post-election fight for political survival

politico.eu · 2026-09-18
our translation

he’s campaigning for the berlin cdu behind closed doors, which tells you everything — show up enough to own a win, stay hidden enough to disown a loss.

Berlin and Mecklenburg vote Sundayvery sure · 5 sources
#2
Merz declares the unconditional transatlantic friendship over
new — New: 12 outlets carried the quotevery sure · 4 sources
#3
Nearly half of Germans expect him gone by year’s end
new — YouGov: 48% see him gone by year-endvery sure · 5 sources
#4
Merz faces down a party revolt, loyalty letters and all
new — Bloomberg: facing down a party revoltpretty sure · 4 sources
friday, september 18
Campaign for the Berlin CDU, doors firmly closed(reported)
Refresh the Berlin and Mecklenburg polls one more time before Sunday(safe bet)
Count which CDU premiers still pick up on the first ring(safe bet)

rebuilt from the public schedule, pool reports & old habits — the rest is educated guessing

The source

Merz campaigns for Berlin CDU ahead of election - behind closed doors

news.google.com · 2026-09-18

every line on the pad traces to something public — tap to see it