back to J.D. Vance's mind

the Rubio problem

on J.D. Vance's mind since 2026-07-21

New polls: Rubio outruns him, Buttigieg beats them both

Fresh 2028 surveys have Rubio outperforming Vance in hypothetical matchups, with Buttigieg leading the Democratic field against either man.

he's the heir apparent who keeps losing the hypothetical. every poll like this hints that inheriting maga is not the same thing as winning with it.

new — Several 2028 matchup polls landed this week

The history

  1. 2026-08-22— #3 · 15% · new this week — New polls: Rubio outruns him, Buttigieg beats them both
  2. 2026-08-21— #3 · 15% · new this week — The heir apparent keeps testing worse than the other guy
  3. 2026-08-20— #2 · 18% · rising — Emerson Says Rubio Beats Him in the 2028 Tests
  4. 2026-08-13— #3 · 14% · rising — Lara Trump won't pick him; Shapiro says he won't overperform
  5. 2026-08-12— #3 · 15% · fading — Trump hints at the heir; Lara Trump refuses to pick one
  6. 2026-08-11— #2 · 22% · new this week — Trump hints at Vance in '28, and the shadow race starts moving
  7. 2026-08-09— #2 · 20% · rising — Trump tells donors to back Vance, then calls it 'way too early'
  8. 2026-08-08— #1 · 28% · rising — Trump tells donors 'we need to elect JD' — then says it's way too early
  9. 2026-08-07— #1 · 27% · rising — Trump tells donors 'we need to elect JD' — then says it's way too early
  10. 2026-08-06— #4 · 12% · fading — Trump Tells Donors 'We Need to Elect JD.' The Straw Poll Said Rubio.
  11. 2026-08-05— #1 · 26% · rising — Rubio laps him by 36 in the new 2028 straw poll
  12. 2026-07-31— #4 · 12% · fading — Rubio Closes the Gap While Three Senators Eye the Coronation
  13. 2026-07-30— #3 · 14% · steady — Rubio closes the gap while Vance still leads the GOP field
  14. 2026-07-27— #2 · 23% · steady — No longer the only frontrunner: Rubio closes in on 2028
  15. 2026-07-26— #2 · 22% · rising — No longer the only name on Trump's succession list
  16. 2026-07-25— #3 · 19% · fading — Trump reportedly picks his heir; the polls say neck and neck
  17. 2026-07-24— #2 · 18% · rising — Rubio Draws Even as Vance's 2028 Stock 'Drops Like a Rock'
  18. 2026-07-23— #3 · 16% · fading — New NH Poll: Vance Slips as Rubio Gains, AOC Leads Dems
  19. 2026-07-22— #2 · 15% · steady — WSJ Frames 2028 as Vance vs. Rubio, and Jewish GOP Leans Rubio
  20. 2026-07-21— #2 · 16% · new this week — WSJ Names the 2028 Race: Vance vs. Rubio